Most market observers agree that the many uncertainties swirling around the US Presidential election are likely to generate volatility in the US equity market that could last well beyond November 3rd.
At first glance, constructing a volatility surface looks like a straightforward exercise – a closer look reveals there is a great deal more to consider.
When newcomers to the field of quantitative finance are assigned the task of writing up an analysis, they will often show numbers using five, six or even more digits to the right of the decimal point. This may be driven by the part of the brain that craves precision and exactness. Given the unstable nature of financial data, does that mean it is a fool’s errand to try to estimate risk?
Markets change frequently and often erratically, presenting risk managers, asset managers, and investors with enormous uncertainty. Given the market volatility in recent months, it is especially important to monitor real-time risks and to test a portfolio’s resilience under future possible market fluctuations.
It was a historic moment to be remembered when crude oil plunged into negative price territory on Monday 20th April 2020. Imagine’s Data, Technical, Development and Professional Services teams stood ready to assist users in ensuring they continued to correctly calculate risk metrics across commodity trading books. While negative prices are not a new thing in financial markets, it was the first time for crude oil to exhibit such behaviour. Standard pricing models (Black Scholes) for commodity future options are not designed to handle negative underlying prices. As such, Imagine applied an ‘early roll’ of the front month contract of May crude to the June expiry as the negative settle price was confirmed.
As China confronts numerous internal and external challenges from slowing economic growth, disruption in Hong Kong and a volatile trade conflict with the United States, it may be prudent to assess and understand the risk a hard landing for the Chinese economy may pose to your portfolio.
Imagine’s interactive interest rate hedging tool, the IR Hedging Matrix, enables users to evaluate interest rate risks associated with any portfolio, book, or ledger, and returns the number of hedge contracts needed to hedge the interest rate risk.